Let’s face it: as the economy tightens, consumer spending is sliding down. And in this climate, sales and marketing can feel a lot like sitting at a high-stakes casino table, trying to outsmart the house. But in our game, the currencies are money and time—and both are about to get a lot harder to come by.
Our challenge? Placing bets that don’t just keep us in the game, but push us to win—by knowing where, when, and how to place our resources, time, and money on the table.
In any recession, the odds start stacking against businesses. The rules of the game shift, the stakes rise, and the most agile players become the only ones standing when the dust settles. This is a moment to make a choice: stay reactive and risk succumbing to the house’s game, or recalibrate, focusing every resource on bets that serve and attract customers like never before.
Our white paper on the "Operationalized Self-Destruction of Brands," out next week, delves deeply into this dynamic. And here’s a hard truth preview: efficiency isn’t about cutting corners or trying to slash your way to profit. Efficiency means strategic clarity—knowing which bets to make and when to walk away from the costly distractions that eat up time, budget, and, ultimately, customer loyalty.
Back in 2017, we saw the fault lines of inefficiency and started building an algorithm to rebalance the odds. It was clear then, as it is now, that not all advertising dollars are created equal, and not every sales activity deserves the time we give it. But, like the gambler’s dilemma, businesses often throw good money after bad, driven by weak attribution models and outdated marketing myths.
Imagine a scenario: you're moving from a slot machine’s odds (where the house has a 15-25% advantage) to a strategic game of blackjack (where the house has only a 0.5% edge if you play smart). Winning in a recession means knowing which “cards” to count and which to discard—and ensuring you’re no longer laying your cards on the table before the house does.
Breaking Down the Bets: Why, Where, and How to Win
In gambling terms, we set out to understand how businesses were playing their hands:
- Where companies were betting their ad budgets across channels—Facebook, Google, TV, display, programmatic.
- How they were betting—especially in the quality and relevance of data, and whether it captured what really makes customers buy. (Spoiler: that’s more about psychology and meaning than raw numbers).
- When they were betting—examining how they layered data and channels, or if they simply blasted out messages without strategy.
- Why they were betting that way—looking deeply at the thinking and biases guiding decisions, often revealing an unwillingness to challenge long-standing industry “rules.”
And here’s what we found: the classic “Mud Sticks” approach to advertising, where companies bet big just to see what resonates, was playing directly into the house’s hands. Money was spent in the hope that something would hit, often only to win sporadically while losing far too often. To top it off, companies were practically showing the house their cards, burning cash to see the few wins come at the expense of countless losses.
So we took a different approach. We rebuilt the architecture of the game by zeroing in on one critical question: Why does the customer buy? This is the equivalent of a blackjack player carefully counting cards, watching for patterns that signal a winning move.
The truth is, customer behavior is highly patterned. They run through a lightning-fast mental checklist:
- Is this ad relevant to me?
- Why is it showing up now?
- Do I need it in this moment?
- Is my mindset open to it right now?
For two years, we tested, tweaked, and refined these questions, gaining a blueprint for understanding how brands could strategically realign their marketing to stack the odds in their favor.
Results that Speak for Themselves
The numbers? Impressive. By shifting to this model, we’ve helped companies achieve:
- 18-26% reductions in advertising spend
- 26% revenue growth average per channel
This wasn’t just for enterprise giants, either. From billion-dollar corporations to fast-scaling startups, focusing on how, where, and why customers buy has unlocked efficiencies that generate consistent wins.
The Real Takeaway: Recession-Proof Your Strategy
In a time of economic contraction, where wild betting isn’t an option, businesses have a choice: continue playing by outdated rules, or start stacking the odds. The time is now to move past uncalculated risks and embrace a smarter game, where bets are strategic, resources are protected, and growth is sustainable.
Will you make your marketing dollars matter more, or continue leaving cash on the table for the house to sweep up? In this game, fortune truly favors the strategic.
